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Polling

JRF - Connecting with Low Income Voters

October 8 2019

15,009 adult members of the British public (10,008 low income, 5,001 nationally representative), were polled online by Hanbury Strategy on behalf of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation between 8 and 27 August 2019.

Full tables can be found here.

The full report can be found here.

  • Low income voters are a large segment of the electorate, around 9.5 million people; 2.7 million of them can be characterised as swing voters.
  • Although low income voters are still more likely to vote Labour than the Conservatives, today they are less tribally loyal to one party.
  • Brexit is not the most important issue to most of these voters. More want action to revitalise the places they live in, provide opportunity for themselves and their children to thrive, and for their living standards to improve.

Politico - September Snap Poll

September 5, 2019

Hanbury polled a nationally representative sample of 995 respondents between 3-4 September for Politico on attitudes towards the impasse in Parliament over Brexit, and prospects for a snap election. 

Full tables can be found here.

  • Public opinion on the crisis in Parliament is in flux, but there is significant support for an early general election. 46% think there should be an election in October versus 36% who are opposed. 
  • Jeremy Corbyn is historically unpopular, which has created the conditions under which a small plurality of voters are willing to opt for No Deal. 43% think Corbyn as PM is worse than No Deal, with 35% believing the reverse.
  • A snap election will likely not see a repeat of 2017, where other issues came to dominate – voters’ support of parties is primarily motivated by their position on Brexit. 
  • Among likely voters, the Conservative Party holds a 7-point lead over the Labour Party. 

Onward - The Politics of Belonging

August 8th 2019

Hanbury polled a nationally representative sample of 5,073 respondents between 21-28 June for Onward on public opinion toward the politics of freedom and security.

Full tables can be found here.

The full report can be found here.

Key findings

  • Britain’s two-party system is collapsing: both Labour and the Conservatives have close to 50% of their vote compared to the last general election.
  • The British public favour security over freedom: 65% of respondents said they would rather live in a society that ‘focuses on giving people more security’ compared to just 35% who said they wanted a society that ‘focuses on giving people more freedom’.
  • There is a deep scepticism of the liberalising trends of the past several decades: the public believe that overall the expansion of higher education, increasing urbanisation and the privatisation of utilities have been a bad thing for the country. 

Politico - Marginal Constituencies II

July 19th 2019

This poll is the second in a POLITICO-Hanbury series that tracks public opinion in four blocks of marginal constituencies across the United Kingdom.

Find the full write-up here.

  • Boris Johnson is viewed as the best suited to be Prime Minister in both Leave-voting marginals in the East Midlands (34% to 22% over Jeremy Hunt), and Remain-voting parts of London (36% to 30% over Hunt).
  • Between 4 percent and 9 percent of voters would countenance a further delay to the Brexit process beyond October 31 in each of the four electoral battleground regions where the polling was conducted.
  • In remain-voting parts of Scotland and London, 51 percent and 53 percent of respondents respectively now favor revoking Article 50.
  • In the leave voting East Midlands, 48 percent of voters say the U.K. should leave the EU without a deal if one has not been agreed by the October deadline. In the North West, 42% back no deal.

Full tables for London can be found here. Full tables for the East Midlands can be found here. Full tables for Scotland can be found here. Full tables for the North West can be found here.

Global Future - Migration Dividend

July 15th 2019

Hanbury polled a nationally representative sample of 2,045 respondents between 21-23 June for Global Future on public opinion toward immigration and a new Migration Dividend Fund.

Full tables can be found here.

The full Global Future report on the Migration Dividend Fund can be found here.

Key findings

  • The public are broadly positive about the impact immigration has had on the country: 41% believe it has had a positive impact compared to 31% who believe it has had a negative impact. 
  • The positive effects of immigration have clearly not been felt equally: 51% of the UK public say that some parts of the country have benefited from immigration compared to just 28% who say that all parts of the country have benefited from immigration.
  • There is broad support for using the money brought in to the public finances from immigration on increased support for parts of the country that have suffered from underinvestment. 

Politico - European Parliament

May 17th 2019

Hanbury polled a nationally representative sample of 2,000 respondents between 10-13 May for Politico on their views of the European Parliament elections. 

Full tables can be found here.

Key findings

  • Current voting intention for potential European Parliament elections is: Conservatives – 13%; Labour – 25%; Brexit Party – 30%; Liberal Democrats – 14%; Change UK – 6%; SNP – 4%; Greens – 6%
  • Current voting intention for a general election is: Conservatives – 21%; Labour – 30%; Brexit Party – 20%; Liberal Democrats – 13%; Change UK – 6%; SNP – 4%; Greens – 5%

Open Europe - European Parliament

April 10th 2019

Hanbury polled a nationally representative sample of 2,000 respondents between 5-8 April for Open Europe on their opinion surrounding potential European Parliament elections

Full tables can be found here.

Key findings

  • Current voting intention for potential European Parliament elections is: Conservatives – 23.0%; Labour – 37.8%; Brexit Party – 10.3%; Liberal Democrats – 8.1%; UKIP – 7.5%; Change UK – 4.1%; SNP – 4.1%; Greens – 4.0%
  • 48.1% of Leave voters said they were either likely or very likely to support the Brexit Party led by Nigel Farage in the upcoming European elections, compared to 18.0% of Remain voters.
  • 33.4% of Remain voters said they were either likely or very likely to support Change UK which they were told is in favour of “a second referendum on Britain’s exit from the EU”. In contrast 22.7% of Leaver voters suggested they were either likely or very likely to support that party.

Onward - Generation Why

April 8th 2019

Hanbury polled a nationally representative sample of 10,031 between November 9-27 2018 for the Onward report Generation Why?, Onward’s landmark report into generational voting patterns, policy priorities and political values.

Full tables can be found here. A link to the report can be found here.

  • The report explores how age has become the key divide within British politics. In 2017, “the tipping point age” – the median age at which a voter is more likely to vote Conservative than Labour – was 47 years old. We establish that since the election “the tipping point” has risen by 4 years to 51 years old.
  • Between 2010 and 2017, the discrepancy between how 18-24s and over-65s voted grew by 500% – and at the last election the age gap was 50 percentage points higher than the post-war average of all elections since 1945.
  • If a General Election were held today, just 16% of under 35s would vote Conservative and 60% would vote for Labour. The opposite is true for over-65s, 56% of whom would vote Conservative and 24% would vote for Labour.

Politico - Marginal Constituencies

April 8th 2019

The poll is the first in a series POLITICO and Hanbury will publish in 2019, tracking public opinion in blocks of neighbouring constituencies throughout the country. By creating clusters from constituencies with similar political and demographic features, the aim is to understand political dynamics in some of the key constituencies which will decide the next election.

Find the full write-up here.

  • Brexit is named as one of the three most important issues facing the country in all four areas surveyed, with more than 70 percent in each area naming it.
  • After Brexit, crime was seen as the next most important issue, particularly in London and the East Midlands where 49 percent and 52 percent respectively named it as one of the three most important problems facing the country. In the North West 41 percent agreed, while the figure dropped to just 29 percent in Scotland.
  • In London the Conservatives are seen as out of touch by 59 percent, incompetent by 50 percent, “only for the rich” by 61 percent and pragmatic by only 30 percent, representing “people like me” by 20 percent and tough on crime by just 19 percent.

Full tables for London can be found here. Full tables for the East Midlands can be found here. Full tables for Scotland can be found here. Full tables for the North West can be found here

Politico - Brexit (IV)

March 12th 2019

Hanbury polled a nationally representative sample of 500 respondents between 8-10 pm on March 12th 2019 for Politico after MPs had voted on the Government’s Brexit deal.

Full tables can be found here.

Key findings

  • The public thinks that MPs were right to reject the Government’s Brexit deal: 41% said it was the right thing to do compared to 33% who thought it was the wrong thing to do.
  • Ahead of key votes in Parliament, the public are clear that they want MPs to vote against No Deal and to delay Britain’s exit: 47% say MPs should vote against a No Deal Brexit MPs compared to 35% who say they should vote for it.
  • 44% of people want MPs to vote to delay Britain’s exit compared to 39% who say they should not.

Politico - Brexit (III)

February 27th 2019

Hanbury polled a nationally representative sample of 2,006 respondents between the 22nd and 25th February on public attitudes towards the Brexit deal and a delay to the Brexit process.

Full tables can be found here.

Key findings

  • The public view a delay to Brexit as the most likely outcome. What asked about what they expect to happen on March 30th, 35% believe that the UK will have delayed its exit from the EU; 29% believe that the UK will have left without a deal; and 17% believe that the UK will have left with a deal.
  • The country is divided as to whether ‘No Deal’ should be ruled out all together: 40% of people say that the Government should not rule out ‘No Deal’ compared to 36% who want the Government to take it off the table.
  • The country supports an extension to the Brexit process – but 3 months is the limit. 42% find a 3 month extension acceptable, compared to 40% who say it is unacceptable. By contrast, 33% find a 6 month extension acceptable, compared to 48% who say it is unacceptable.

Deliveroo - Calorie labelling

January 19th 2019

Hanbury polled a nationally representative sample of 2,207 respondents between December 15 and December 19 on the level of nutritional information they want to see on food delivery menus.

Full tables can be found here.

Key findings

  • 53% would like to have more information about the nutritional content of the food they order for delivery from restaurants and takeaways.
  • 54% would like to see more information on the calorie content of the food they order for delivery from restaurants and takeaways.
  • 34% of people say that calorie levels would be the most helpful nutritional information to have on menus, ahead of details on level of fat (23%), salt (16%) or sugar content (19%).

Onward Human Capital Report

July 3rd 2019

Hanbury polled a nationally representative sample of 2,036 respondents between 13-15 February for Onward tracking public opinion surrounding the impact of technological change on human capital and the labour market.

Full tables can be found here.

Key findings

  • When asked to consider what might happen if a large number of jobs were automated, people overwhelmingly choose negative options. On average, 57% think that people would struggle to find employment and a further 40% predict that inequality would rise. This compares to just 15% who predict new, better-paying jobs and 19% who believe the economy would be more efficient.
  • 57% of all respondents did not feel their job was especially or at all threatened by technology, compared to just 30% who did, and only 9% who felt that it was threatened a great deal.
  • The share of workers actively upskilling to gain a promotion or a new job is relatively low. On average, 21% of workers have gained a new skill in the last year, compared to 23% have never gained a new qualification to progress in work.

Mahabis - Work-life Balance

December 23rd 2018

Hanbury polled a nationally representative sample of 2,034 respondents between November 29th and December 3rd 2018 on their work-life balance.

Full tables can be found here.

Key findings

  • People’s work life balance out of kilter as more than 50% of people have replied to work-related emails out of the office, whilst just under half have stayed at work past their contracted hours.
  • In both cases, the situation was significantly worse amongst young people, suggesting that this trend is only increasing.
  • More than 75% of people say their work-life balance had either stayed the same or got worse over the last year.

Deliveroo - Recycling Poll

December 18th 2018

Hanbury polled a nationally representative sample of 2,001 respondents between 23rd and 27th November 2018 on their understanding of recycling.

Full tables can be found here.

Key findings

  • A strong majority of respondents think they are well-informed about recycling (73% vs. 10% who feel uninformed).
  • However, a majority of respondents (58%) did not know that greasy pizza boxes cannot be recycled. These figures are even worse for 18-24 year olds, 66% of whom don’t realise that boxes stained with oil or remnants of pizza can’t be put into the recycling bin
  • Nearly half of those polled (49%) take the time to consider whether an item they are buying and its packaging can be recycled, whilst 71% say they recycle ‘all the time’ (24% sometimes recycle, 3% rarely recycle and 2% never recycle).

Politico - Brexit Deal

November 15th 2018

Hanbury carried out a nationally representative snap poll of 505 respondents between 8-10pm on 14 November 2018 for Politico on the Government’s proposed Brexit deal.

Full tables can be found here.

Key findings

  • The Government appears to have a major job to do to persuade the country of the merits of its Brexit deal: When asked whether Parliament should approve it, more people said No (45%) than Yes (28%).
  • Only 29% of people think that MPs should back the deal so we can ‘get on with Brexit’. Whereas 60% believe that MPs should ‘vote down the deal’. The good news for the Government is that the opposition is divided on what to do next, with some favouring a no deal Brexit (27%) and others saying there should be a second referendum (33%).
  • Similarly there does not appear to be a huge appetite for a leadership challenge to the Prime Minister. 45% say there should not be a challenge, compared to 40% who think that there should be. The Prime Minister polls better than any of her obvious rivals in the Conservative Party.

KPMG - Consumer attitudes towards Brexit

November 14th 2018

Hanbury polled a nationally representative sample of 4,015 respondents between the 31st October and 5th November, on consumer attitudes towards Brexit and No Deal Brexit for KPMG.

Full tables can be found here.

Key findings

  • A majority of the British public believe a No Deal Brexit is likely: 53% believe that a No Deal Brexit is likely or very likely as opposed to 21% who believe it is unlikely or very unlikely.
  • Uncertainty over Brexit is having an impact on consumer behaviour: 31% have already reduced spending on everyday items compared to 69% who haven’t. 41% of respondents believe it is likely or very likely that they will reduce spending on everyday items in the future in the face of No Deal Brexit as opposed to 30%.
  • The public are less confident about the impact of Brexit on the economy in the short term and more confident in the long term. When asked about Brexit’s impact on the economy in the first few weeks after exit 22% believe it will be positive and 46% negative. In the year after the UK leaves 33% think Brexit will be positive for the economy and 41% negative. And in 5-10 years after the UK leaves the EU 47% think it will be positive for the economy and 28% negative.

Politico - Brexit (II)

November 8th 2018

Hanbury polled a nationally representative sample of 3,006 respondents between the 29th October and 2nd November, on public attitudes towards Brexit for Politico.

Full tables can be found here.

Key findings

  • In general, the UK population are optimistic about the long-term economic benefits of Brexit. 48% of respondents said that Brexit will have a positive impact on the economy in the next decade.
  • Among a menu of potential consequences, prices in the shops going up was the most powerful – 35% of Leave voters said that prices going up in shops would be likely or very likely to change their mind on Brexit, compared with 22% of Leave voters who responded that the reintroduction of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic would.
  • 59% of respondents said that ‘thousands of bankers leaving the country’, as a result of Brexit, would be good for or make no difference to the country.

Politico - Brexit

November 5th 2018

Hanbury polled a nationally representative sample of 3,006 respondents between the 29th October and 2nd November, on public attitudes towards Brexit for Politico.

Full tables can be found here.

Key findings

  • Overall, the public want the Prime Minister to compromise and make a deal with the European Union, rather than walk away from negotiations: 47% of respondents say that Theresa May should ‘try to get any deal – even if she has to compromise – in order to avoid economic disruption’, compared to 35% who want her ‘walk away from negotiations, even if it means economic disruption’.
  • The public are still split over the nature of the UK’s future relationship with the EU: when presented with the outlines of the three main Brexit propositions without their traditional shorthand titles, 41% of respondents choose a ‘Canada’ style free trade agreement compared to 31% who choose the Norway’ option and 29% who select Theresa May’s ‘Chequers’ compromise.
  • There is support for extending the transition period, unless it comes with a significant price-tag: 59% say they would support extending the transition if it means the UK gets a better deal, but only 38% support this approach if the UK still has to pay money to the EU.

KPMG - Brexit

September 5th 2018

Hanbury polled a nationally representative sample of 3,004 respondents between August 4th and 6th 2018 on public attitudes towards Brexit for KPMG.

Full tables can be found here.

Key findings

  • A majority of the public believe the UK will leave the EU without a deal: 53% of respondents believe the UK is likely to leave without a deal compared to 20% who believe a ‘No Deal’ Brexit is unlikely.
  • The public think Brexit will have a negative impact on the UK economy in the short term, but a positive impact in the long term: 49% of respondents believe the economy will be negatively affected in the weeks after Brexit while 41% believe it will be positively affected five to ten years after the UK leaves the EU.
  • The public want to hear more from small businesses and manufacturers about Brexit: 55% of respondents say they want to hear more from small businesses and 53% want to hear more from manufacturers.

KPMG - Artificial Intelligence

August 23rd 2018

Hanbury polled a nationally representative sample of 2,000 respondents between June 9th and 13th 2018 on public attitudes towards Artificial Intelligence for KPMG.

Full tables can be found here.

Key findings

  • The UK public are worried about AI: 51% of respondents are concerned about its impact on their data privacy and 55% think it will lead to job losses.
  • Increased government regulation of AI is very popular: 59% of respondents believe there should be increased government regulation of new technologies like AI compared to just 6% who want less.
  • The UK public feel most comfortable giving their personal data to the NHS: 56% of respondents are willing to share their personal data with the NHS if it improved the service they received compared to just 8% for internet companies.

Hanbury carries out political and consumer polling research on behalf of major companies, global consultancies and international investors.

Combining cutting edge analytical techniques with innovative online data collection, Hanbury provides global research, analysis and insight. We have experience at data gathering in over 30 countries.

Hanbury is a British Polling Council registered research provider. For more information please contact us as polling@hanburystrategy.com.

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